Russian Invasion: More Of Deterrence To NATO Than Conventional War - THE DAILY CRUCIBLE

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Thursday, February 24, 2022

Russian Invasion: More Of Deterrence To NATO Than Conventional War

           •Putin & Ukraine leader, Zelensky


The Daily Crucible | Friday, February 25, 2022

The trending incursion of Russian Military troops to Ukraine, could be best described as a seemingly strategic paradigm of Vladimir Putin of Rusia to send a threat or signal to the super power nations of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) than insinuations of any conventional war.

Deterrence in international relations, is one of the cardinal strategies to resolve or tackle any potential war or conflicts. Just like conflict resolution strategies: Disarmament, Arms Control, denuclearization, Balance of Power etc. 

The attack on the Eastern European country (Ukraine) by Russia is essentially not to cause any third war, if one has been consistently following the trend but to pose a threat and deter the Ukrainian government and its purported allies.

Power in international relations according to (Hans Mongenthus) "is the ability of a nation to use its tangible and its intangible resources to affect the behaviour of another nation" Sequel to this aphorism, it is pretty conspicuous to understand Russia mission here and prime goals on this very global and disturbing development.

A credible diplomacy or what we refer to in international relations as "negotiating prowess" of a country to influence on any bilateral agreement with another nation, is indisputably impeccable, if such a nation must protect its national interest and be a key player in any of its foreign policies as this of course is what is being played out here by Russia.

It is absolutely utopian and unimaginable how some supper power nations as the conglomerations of NATO, including the United States, will watch and incalculably acted on such an appalling development, if Russia do not unarguably have very serious grip of the countries, including the United States.

It was indeed surprising why no serious actions were taken? Until after such exigous and catastrophic attacks on Ukraine, despite the slogan of NATO, "an injury to one is an injury to all". However, in this scenario most of the NATO member states and the United States have been obviously pocketed and suppressed by Vladimir Putin and the Russian government.

This of course, could be that they know the economic prowess of Russia in Europe. Invariably, they are just being stylishly diplomatic of how to tackle Rusia. Having realised the magnitude of the consequences.

Russia remains the Europe's biggest external energy supplier, providing about 45% of the region's natural gas. Russia and Belarus are allies and they are both the major producers of crop nutrients. 

It is the largest wheat exporter in the world. At around 39 million tons annually. While US is the world's second largest exporter at 27 million tons exported. Europe as today, imports about 60% of its energy needs with some countries like Germany, Switzerland, France etc.dependend so largely on Rusia

Given all these empirical analysis above the presence of Rusia and proxies in the commodities space, US and NATO member states have been skeptical and incalculable of any serious sanction on Russia. Thus, makes Rusia waxing stronger. 

Though the Ukrainian separatists are still enjoying the support of Russia, against their democratic government. Again, this would not be the first time of Rusia to  use such an approach, it was the same divide and rule it played out between Syrian government and the Rebels.

Kunle Alaye, Fellow Council for the Development of Social Science Research in Africa (CODESRIA). Writes from the Department of Political Science and International Relations Chrisland University Abeokuta Ogun State Nigeria.

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