U.S 2020 : Biden Makes Gains With Key Demographics Compared To 2016 - THE DAILY CRUCIBLE



Tuesday, November 3, 2020

U.S 2020 : Biden Makes Gains With Key Demographics Compared To 2016

Polls have started closing in dozens of states as Americans brace for the results of the 2020 election, with the White House and control of Congress hanging in the balance.

In the presidential race, most of the early battlegrounds are still considered toss-ups between President Trump and Joe Biden as votes continue to be counted. The president is performing well in Florida, while Biden is showing strength in North Carolina. All eyes are on the Midwest and Pennsylvania, which are crucial to both candidates' paths to victory.

Mr. Trump is hoping for a surge of Election-Day voters to overcome a large lead by Biden among early voters. More than 100 million people cast ballots before Election Day, and Democrats held an advantage in most of the key battleground states among those who did so. Whether their lead proves sustainable remains the key question as election night unfolds.

Without Hillary Clinton on the ballot this time around, Mr. Trump is running worse among men than in 2016. He is in a dead heat with Biden among this group that Clinton lost by 11 points. Meanwhile, Biden leads by 15 points among women, similar to Clinton's 13-point advantage.

Suburban women, a group both candidates hoped to appeal to, favored Biden 56% to 43%. This was slightly better than Clinton's margin in 2016, when she led 51% to 44%.

In terms of race, Biden is benefitting from a larger proportion of non-White voters at the polls: 35% this year compared to 29% in 2016. While Biden is outperforming Mr. Trump among non-White voters, 72% to 25%, this is a slightly smaller margin than Clinton had in 2016 (74% to 21%). Compared to 2016, Mr. Trump appears to be doing about 4 points better among Black voters, 3 points better among Hispanic voters, 4 points better among Asian voters and 3 points better among other non-White voters.

Countering Mr. Trump's improved performance among non-White voters, Biden is performing better among White voters than Clinton did in 2016. Biden is losing White voters by 12 points — a group that Clinton lost by 20 points.

In terms of age, the electorate looks about the same as it did in 2016. However, younger voters are more strongly favoring Biden than they favored Clinton. Among the 9% of voters aged 18 to 24, Biden leads 69% to 27%. In 2016, Clinton led 56% to 34%. Biden also saw an improvement in voters over 45, holding even with Mr. Trump among this group. In 2016, Clinton lost those over 45 by a margin of 44% to 52%.

- David Jones

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